MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON GROUNDWATER RECHARGE AND WATER RESOURCE SUSTAINABILITY

Abstract

Groundwater recharge processes and long-term water resource sustainability are largely affected by climate variability, especially in areas that are becoming more arid and water stressed. The present study evaluated the temporal changes of precipitation, temperature, drought index, and aridity index in the region of the Maamora aquifer in Morocco using secondary hydroclimatic data from 1970 to 2100. Historical and projected hydroclimatic changes were assessed using descriptive statistics, temporal trend analysis, Pearson correlation and climatic classification methods. Results showed decrease in annual precipitation at the rate of 1.19 mm/year and increase in temperature at the rate of 0.017°C/year. The number of drought episodic years rose from 2 to 16 for 1970-2000 and 2051-2100, respectively, and the De Martonne aridity values decreased. The Pearson correlation analysis revealed a negative relationship between precipitation and temperature (r = −0.519), suggesting that higher temperatures were correlated with lower precipitation. This indicates a worsening climate for groundwater recharge and possible problems with water availability over the long term. However, the data available did not contain enough hydrogeological parameters or recharge observations to quantify direct groundwater recharge changes. The study emphasizes the need to combine climate variability assessment, groundwater monitoring with validated groundwater recharge modelling for sustainable water resource management and enhance the resilience of the region in the future climatic conditions.