SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND VEGETATION CHANGE UNDER CHANGING CLIMATIC CONDITIONS

Abstract

The rising trend of urbanization and climate change has increased concern about the alteration of land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation in the rapidly developing metropolitan areas. This study aims to understand the spatiotemporal variations in LST and vegetation greenness over the Dhaka Metropolitan Region from 1990 to 2025. The satellite-derived environmental indicators analyzed had the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), and the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), which were compared in time and space via Pearson correlation and through fixed-effects panel regression. The mean LST was found to be increased by 4.70 °C, and mean NDVI increased by 0.0434 on an overall basis. Nearly 94.96% of spatial grid cells were found to have higher surface temperature while 62.49% of spatial grid cells had greater vegetation greenness. The correlation analysis revealed that as LST increased, NDVI decreased, and that NDBI had a consistently positive correlation with the surface temperature. The panel regression also showed that NDVI had a negative correlation with LST, MNDWI had a negative correlation with LST, and NDBI had a positive correlation with LST. All these results indicate complex relations between vegetation, built-up features and thermal conditions in the city. The research findings can inform integrated green infrastructure planning and spatially targeted approaches to environmental resilience planning in Dhaka in the face of urban change.